Is COVID-19 truly a Black Swan Event?| FM Insider Blog

Baskar Sundaram
Baskar Sundaram

This blog is part of our Covid series that explores a range of topics related to these issues and will naturally evolve as events unfold and facts reveal themselves. The blogs are in no way intended to provide scientific or health expertise, but rather focus on the implications and options for facilities services and workplace organisations.

These insights are based on our ongoing interactions with organizations operating in impacted areas and our expertise in facilities service growth delivery. 

The last thing the world needs is another “hot-take” on COVID-19, but the biggest fallacy I see as people think/talk/write about the post-COVID-19 economic scenario is to compare it to previous economic recessions.

We are continually monitoring the situation to help our clients understand how this situation plays out. Our COVID-19 resource center has our latest and evolving thinking.

Why is this different?

The 2008-09 crisis couldn’t be more different than what we are seeing today, and the post-COVID-19 world is going to be wildly different across dimensions.

COVID-19 is much more broad-based in impact. Not only will it reshape business, but it will reshape intrinsic human behaviour and consumer preferences. At this point, I would disregard any economic projections of this pandemic’s impact. We do not know enough at this stage, nor how long it will take to play out (is the current stimulus enough? when do we recover, if at all? – you get the drift).

What do we know?

So, what we can say with a degree of certainty at this point? This pandemic will have wide-ranging implications:

  • Asset ownership will need a rethink – nobody wants to “own” risks on their balance sheets
  • Customer expectations will never be the same
  • We will see a fundamental transformation of how and where work gets done
  • Private sector buyers will try to conserve cash and look for self-funded transformation
  • Procurement will not be linear and will be very different

 

We are continually monitoring the situation to help our clients understand how this situation plays out. Our COVID-19 resource center has our latest and evolving thinking. Please stay safe and curious.

How can we engage?

We like to start with a conversation to learn where you are on your journey and what level of support might work best for you and your organization. Drop me a line – baskar@baachu.com

 

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