£22.9bn of UK FM contracts are up for renewal by 2028. Here is what is happening to them.
We have reviewed the Baachu RAIN contract database and identified UK facilities management contracts due to expire within the next 24 months.
The pipeline contains 963 contracts with a recorded value of approximately £22.9bn.
Of these, 606 contracts are due to expire within the next 12 months, including 376 with fewer than six months remaining.
That matters because a contract ending in six months is rarely a future opportunity. In most cases, the buyer is already deciding whether to extend the existing arrangement, retender the work or bring some or all of the service in-house.
The expiry date is therefore not the point at which suppliers should begin paying attention. It is the end of a commercial process that often starts many months earlier.
THE MARKET IS ALREADY MAKING DECISIONS
Our pipeline groups contracts according to the remaining time before expiry. There are 357 contracts in the 12-to-24-month preparation period. These are the opportunities where suppliers still have time to research the account, develop relationships and shape their approach.
A further 230 contracts are within six to twelve months of expiry. We describe this as the tender window, although the precise procurement position will vary from contract to contract. The largest group is the 376 contracts with fewer than six months remaining. For many of these, the main commercial decision is likely to be approaching or may already be substantially advanced.
The key point is simple: this is not just a forecast of future activity. It is a picture of a market already moving through renewal, retender and sourcing decisions.
WHERE THE WORK IS
The pipeline is not spread evenly across the market. Education is the largest sector by contract volume, with 299 contracts due to expire within the next 24 months. Local Government follows closely with 255.
Together, these two sectors account for more than half of the identified contract pipeline.
Central Government has 102 contracts, Housing has 91 and Healthcare has 67. The remaining opportunities are distributed across Office, Blue Light, Leisure, Transport, Retail, Energy and Utilities, Manufacturing, Pharmaceuticals and Industrial, and Finance and Insurance.
For suppliers operating in Education or Local Government, the next two years are likely to be particularly active. The scale of the pipeline also means that retention activity will matter as much as new-business pursuit.
WHAT TYPES OF SERVICES ARE COMING UP?
By contract volume, the pipeline leans strongly towards Soft FM. Of the 963 contracts, 542 are classified as Soft FM, 311 as Hard FM, 98 as Integrated FM and 12 as Other. Soft FM therefore represents 56.3% of the identified pipeline, compared with 32.3% for Hard FM and 10.2% for Integrated FM.
This does not mean Soft FM carries the greatest financial value. It means there are more individual Soft FM contracts approaching expiry.
Repairs and Maintenance follows with 133, while Catering has 132. Integrated FM has 98 contracts, Security has 80 and Mechanical and Electrical has 63.
The value ranking is different. Integrated FM accounts for approximately £9.0bn of recorded value, making it by far the largest category by value at risk. Repairs and Maintenance represents approximately £2.8bn, Linen and Laundry approximately £2.7bn, and Bundled Hard FM approximately £2.5bn.
This difference is important. Cleaning offers the greatest number of individual opportunities, while Integrated FM contains fewer but significantly larger contracts.
WHERE THE OPPORTUNITY IS MOST CONCENTRATED
Looking at service type and sector together provides a clearer view of where suppliers may want to focus. The largest concentration is Cleaning in Education, with 120 contracts.
Catering in Education follows with 93 contracts.
In Local Government, the strongest concentrations are Cleaning with 56 contracts, Repairs and Maintenance with 54, Security with 29, and Mechanical and Electrical with 28. Housing also shows a significant repairs pipeline, while Central Government has notable concentrations in Security and Bundled Hard FM.
This level of detail matters because a broad market view can hide where the practical opportunities are. Suppliers need to understand not only which services are expiring, but which buyers and sectors are driving that activity.
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN CONTRACTS EXPIRE?
When an FM contract reaches the end of its term, three broad outcomes tend to recur.
A NEW SUPPLIER WINS
Contracts can move to a competitor when the buyer retenders, restructures the service or breaks up an existing bundled arrangement. CBRE has been one of the more visible beneficiaries of major contract changes in recent years. It took on the total facilities management contract at United Utilities from Emcor in April 2024.
In the same month, CBRE secured Hard FM work at Landsec after the customer moved away from its previous single-supplier arrangement and divided the services. These examples show why competitor-contract intelligence matters. A supplier does not need every contract in the market. It needs to identify the accounts where the buyer may be open to change and engage early enough to influence the outcome.
THE WORK GOES IN-HOUSE
Insourcing is particularly important in social housing repairs. Several large housing providers have increased their use of in-house delivery teams rather than relying entirely on outsourced repairs contracts.
Riverside moved repairs activity in-house in 2023. Clarion and Home Group have also developed substantial internal delivery capabilities, using external contractors to provide additional capacity or specialist support.
This is not simply another competitive threat. It changes the addressable market itself. A contract that previously moved between suppliers may instead disappear from the outsourced pipeline.
THE INCUMBENT RETAINS THE WORK
Many contracts remain with the existing supplier. Rio Tinto retained Sodexo under a new seven-year arrangement. The Jockey Club continued with Compass through a long-term agreement, while Sainsbury’s retained Arcus.
Incumbency still provides an advantage, but it is not a guarantee. Buyers may retender, change scope, split services, consolidate suppliers or bring delivery in-house. Retention therefore needs the same preparation and discipline as a new-business bid.
THE CUSTOMER LANDSCAPE IS ALSO CHANGING
The market is changing not only because contracts are being retendered, but because customers themselves are consolidating. Circle Housing became part of Clarion. Genesis and Notting Hill Housing combined to form Notting Hill Genesis. Optivo and Southern Housing Group combined to form Southern Housing. Network Homes and Sovereign joined to create SNG.
This means some of the organisations suppliers previously sold to no longer exist under their old names. Buying power is increasingly concentrated in fewer, larger organisations. Supplier account plans, contact databases and competitor maps must reflect that change. A business still targeting the old customer structure may be speaking to the wrong people, using outdated account names or misunderstanding how decisions are now made.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR SUPPLIERS
There are two immediate priorities.
First, understand which of your own contracts are approaching expiry.
The 230 contracts within the six-to-twelve-month window are already moving towards a commercial decision. Suppliers that wait until the formal end date are often too late.
Retention planning should begin well before the procurement process becomes visible. That includes measuring performance, strengthening relationships, identifying weaknesses and preparing a clear renewal proposition.
Second, understand which competitor-held contracts are approaching the market.
The 357 contracts in the 12-to-24-month preparation period offer the greatest opportunity to act early. This is the point at which suppliers can research the customer, understand the incumbent arrangement, monitor changes in leadership or strategy, and build a credible pursuit plan.
The 376 contracts with fewer than six months remaining may still present opportunities, but many will already be well advanced.
The real advantage comes from knowing what is coming before the wider market begins reacting to it.
METHODOLOGY NOTE
This analysis covers contracts recorded in the Baachu RAIN database that are due to expire within 24 months of 16 June 2026. Procurement stages are estimated from the remaining time to contract expiry and do not necessarily indicate that a formal tender has been published.
Contract values reflect disclosed or recorded values. Undisclosed values are excluded from the total, and the aggregate may be influenced by a small number of particularly large contracts.
Want the full pipeline for your sector, or your competitors’ contracts mapped out? Contact us for pipeline and market intelligence at hello@baachu.com.
Related: Read our analysis of the OCS-Mitie competitor field.